A new analysis from the Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that Chinese outbound tourist numbers overall won't recover to 2019 levels until 1Q2024 - and recovery of outbound to the US will be later yet because of strained diplomatic and trade relations.

China outbound facts:

• China will have vaccinated 60% of its population against COVID-19 by 2Q2022.
• Chinese government won't relax quarantine requirements for travelers returning from Hong Kong and Macau until late 2022, other countries sometime in 2023 depending on risk level.
• Outbound travelers from China will prefer to visit countries that are safe and offer an easy visa application process.
• Chinese tourists were the #1 global spenders in 2019, leaving $254.6B overseas.
• In attractiveness to outbound travelers from China, The Economist ranks the US comparable to Norway, Taiwan and Russia, but below all other Asian destinations and above all other European destinations.
• Negative factors of US attractiveness include: use of non-Chinese vaccines, difficulty of visa process for Chinese citizens and current level of COVID-19 infection.

The Economist predicts that before Chinese outbound travel fully recovers, most demand will come from high-income, vaccinated groups, and will be for smaller, customized tours vs. large group tours.